Protectionist Policies and Their Long-Term Effects on Employment and Global Trade

Abstract

To address a critical empirical gap, this paper addresses protectionist trade policies and its long-term impacts on employment dynamics and global trade. Data was collected from 113 finance and economics professionals which was analysed using PLS-SEM. Then, it was evaluated using three primary constructs for which the structural validity was confirmed through G*Power analysis and Cronbach’s Alpha scores. These scores ranged from 0.737 to 0.773. The results show that sustained protectionism leads to labour shifts and it disrupts established GVC’s. This leads to heavy adjustment costs for downstream industries. It also highlights that retaliatory trade spirals often lead to employment displacement. This study gives a comprehensive empirical framework for understanding labour market governance and trade policy design in both emerging and advanced economies. This is achieved by combining firm-level strategic responses with macro-level policy analysis.