Beyond Ceteris Paribus: A Contingency Framework for Contextual Return on Investment (C-ROI) in Dynamic Markets:

Abstract

Return on Investment (ROI) remains the most widely employed metric for evaluating marketing and business performance due to its simplicity and comparability. However, this simplicity rests on a restrictive assumption—that the conditions surrounding an investment remain constant. In practice, marketing outcomes emerge within complex environments shaped by behavioural, environmental, and macroeconomic forces. This study develops a Contextual Return on Investment (C-ROI) framework that reconceptualises ROI as a conditionally moderated function rather than a fixed ratio. The model integrates five classes of contextual multipliers—marketer effectiveness, demographic receptivity, temporal and seasonal alignment, consumer sentiment, and environmental conditions—within a multiplicative structure. By repositioning ROI as a context-sensitive construct, the study contributes to a more grounded understanding of performance measurement under real-world market conditions.